Why I Can't Take Dave Berri Seriously

I was hoping Noce might comment on this fantastic FreeDarko post on Dave Berri's The Wages of Wins, as sussing out the points where economics becomes ideology is really his bag. But that post aside, there's a much simpler reason that I've decided not to invest any time reading The Wages of Wins: By Dave Berri's calculations, Chris Duhon produces more than 4 times the number of wins than Ben Gordon.

No. I'm serious. See for yourself.

You'll also note that his calculations predicted that the Bulls would win 64 games this year. (If they go undefeated from here on out, they'll win 63.) Now, in that graph's accompanying article, he makes the caveat that the Bulls probably won't win 64 games, only that the "evidence suggests the Bulls will be better next season." To which any Bulls fan off the street could have replied: "No shit, Sherlock."

None of this would piss me off that much if I hadn't read that his book concludes like so:

"Without statistical analysis, one cannot see how the actions the players take on the court translate to wins. One can play basketball. One can watch basketball. One can both play and watch basketball for a thousand years. If you do not systematically track what the players do, and then uncover the statistical relationship between these actions and wins, you will never know why teams win and why they lose. Staring at these players play is not a method that will ever yield the answers that the proper analysis of statistics will yield. And this is true if you stare for one day, or as we said, if you stare for a thousand years."

When you come across prose as hubristic as this, it makes you wonder if any of the Anti-Intellectualism in American Life might be well warranted.

And that's a shame. Because I imagine Dave Berri's work shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Serious statistical analysis of basketball is really just starting to gestate, and that Berri's work recognizes the contributions of players like Ben Wallace, Adrian Griffin and, yes, Chris Duhon, in a way that other statsmasters might overlook is salutary. But a little humility is in order, as is ceasing the wholesale dismissal of players, like Ben Gordon, Melo, or AI, who don't fit neatly in your chosen metrics.

For my money, one of the best statisticians out there who fulfils all of these requirements is Kevin Pelton. Check him out.