In Defense of Luol Deng, All-Star

On Twitter, John Hollinger's been having some fun ridiculing Deng's All-Star selection. I'm not sure why he feels like Rondo is such a snub--dude's missed more games than Deng, and his PER isn't as good as Jennings'--but Hollinger isn't alone in feeling Deng's not deserving. The equally brilliant Zach Lowe made a point of sniffing at Deng's credentials earlier in the week.

A lot of this comes down to the nebulous criteria for picking All-Stars. From an individual statistical level, even the most diehard Deng partisan (and I am not quite that, but close) would have to admit that when it comes to either conventional stats or advanced metrics, Deng seems to fall short. But one criteria bandied about--that players should come from winning teams--is relevant, and when it comes to measuring that, the metrics that we have suggest Deng might be more deserving than some people believe.

The most familiar one is Adjusted Plus/Minus. Obviously, LeBron James (having one of the best seasons of his career) leads all Eastern forwards, but where does Deng fit in after him? Actually, he fits in ahead of LeBron, in first place among all forwards.

We see it in the Top Units with regards to Adjusted +/- as well. There is only one team with two units in the Top 10 of the league, and that team is Chicago. But strangely there is only one common denominator in those two lineups, and it's not Derrick Rose: It's Luol Deng.

Perhaps that could be waved aside due to the relatively small sample of minutes for most of the top units. Indeed, looking at all of the top units, only three have played more than 100 minutes together. But the highest one among those three (with a +/- of 21.08 in 188 minutes) is Rose-Brewer-Deng-Boozer-Noah.

But let's make this a little more concrete and examine how the Bulls did in their recent seven-game stretch without Deng. Yes, they went 4-3 (compared to 18-3 with him), but what I found even more interesting was that their point differential over that stretch was a measly +1.43. Considering the Bulls' overall point differential is a league-leading 9.68, that's a pretty stunning difference. And while it's true they've played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far (with their opponents' winning percentage only .451), it's not like their strength-of-schedule during the Deng-less stretch was particularly tough. I calculated it at .489, which would rank 21st in the league. Seven games is obviously an absurdly small sample size, but I can't help but find it significant, particularly in light of the fact the Bulls have simply been murdering (admittedly shitty) teams since Deng's return.

A lot of stat geeks have grown accustomed to rolling their eyes whenever they hear someone like Thibodeau say "Lu affects winning," which is basically Thibs' mantra whenever he's asked about Deng. Affecting winning? That's too vague, just horseshit "coach-speak." Show us concrete statistical production! Preferably directly correlated to Dean Oliver's Four Factors!

I don't mean to dismiss such demands because a) Dean Oliver is a genius and b) a lot of coach speak is plain horseshit. (Cough! Vinny! Cough! Del Negro! Cough!) But it might also be the case that Thibodeau and some other coaches in the league do understand which players are among the elite when it comes to helping their teams win games. And we do have some statistical tools to test whether they're right, if we choose to apply them.

With No Great Moves Availables, Why Not Make A Dick Move?

Reading Zach Lowe’s analysis of Miami signing Shane Battier got me thinking…

Lowe writes about the move’s financial ripple effects for Miami’s roster, and notes, “The Heat have tendered Chalmers a $1.1 million qualifying offer, and Battier’s decision to take less than the full mid-level should allow Miami to retain its point guard at that cost. [But] if another team offers much more, Miami might have to let Chalmers go…”

I know that the Bulls’ biggest need is at 2-guard, but seeing as Jason Richardson (a great shooter, but only a middling defender and not much of a shot creator) is probably the best realistic option on the free agency market, I’m wondering if whether instead the Bulls should swoop in and offer Chalmers a part of their MLE (say, a 3-year, $9 mil. deal) to backup Derrick Rose and maybe even play alongside him at times.

Chalmers would obviously be woefully under-sized as a two-guard, but he can shoot the three, handle the rock and create for others, play hard on-the-ball D, and he hit some of Miami’s biggest shots in the Finals against Dallas (i.e., he has a bit of Simmons’ “Irrational Confidence Guy” in him). He’d allow the Bulls to part much more easily with C.J. Watson in any future trades for a starting 2, and perhaps more importantly, stealing him from Miami would leave the Heat with only one player, rookie Norris Cole, at PG, and there sure as hell aren’t a lot of other appetizing options out there on the market.

With Wade and James, Miami can obviously play without a traditional point, but adding one more thing (primary ballhandler) to either player’s list of duties is likely to make them somewhat worse in another area, considering just how many things Miami calls on both players to do (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, shotblocking, wing-defending, etc.). Signing away Chalmers from Miami may not be a great move for the Bulls, but it would be a dick move to Miami, which might make it the Bulls’ best option at this point.

W000000000000000000000000000T!!!!!111!!!11!1!!!

See you at Christmas, Derrick.

Derrick Rose for MVP, Without Apologies

The argument against Derrick Rose for MVP is logically unassailable. (Unless it's attempted by Colin Cowherd. Then it's a notch below a toddler goofily fingerpainting the walls with his own feces.) M. Haubs at The Painted Area has made it most flawlessly, but locate any stat geek hanging out a shingle on the Internet, and you'll find some version of it. Dwight Howard (or LeBron James) is the correct decision for MVP. Dwight Howard (or LeBron James) is the logical decision for MVP. Dwight Howard (or LeBron James) is the thoughtful decision for MVP. Dwight Howard (or LeBron James) is the just decision for MVP.

All these essays and arguments serve a vital and useful purpose for thinking about basketball, for how we accurately measure and/or quantify an individual player's impact on the court, and as such the world is a better (i.e., more knowledgeable) place for them. But nevertheless I believe these essays all suffer from one simple yet fatal flaw, which is that the world of correctness, logic, thought, and justice is completely divorced from the lizard-brained realm in which 99.9% of NBA fans experience NBA basketball games. Indeed, I'd wager those fans love watching NBA games largely because they offer a fleeting escape from the quotidian tyranny of that reasonable world.

Distilled to its purest form, my basic argument is: Motherfuckin' Derrick Rose makes you feel fuckin' ALIIIIIIIIIIIIVE, mothafuckaz!!!!!!!! Why the fuck are you beancounters waving PER in my face when I saw Derrick Rose hit a last-second, game-tying three that literally made an opponent scream in agony??? You think I give a flying fuck about Defensive On Court/Off Court Efficiency after witnessing Rose miss a shot late in a tight game against Utah and then, visibly furious, appear to will himself into making a perfect steal moments later against Deron Williams to preserve the W???

Wait, I'm sorry; what was that you tried to say? Win Shares? Motherfucker, fuck you! I saw Derrick Rose start a one-man fast-break, get sandwiched by Wade and LeBron while racing downcourt at ludicrous speed, bounce off of Wade and then hit an arms-splayed left-handed layup from an impossible angle, somehow evading LeBron and rendering his awesome block attempt impotent and futile. Then he turned around at James and Wade, vanquished and sprawled out on the floor, barked something foul and nasty at them, and slithered back up the court like some fucking God damn cobra, basking in primal ecstasy over its most recent kill.

And here's the thing: The stat heads agree with this. SI's Zach Lowe, a Howard backer who's as smart as they come, recently wrote that, while Rose may not be MVP, he is the league's Most Exciting Player, one who he recently made his girlfriend watch four different highlights of, from a single game. Haubs' post itself was inspired by Rose's recent fourth-quarter display against Milwaukee, which left all its observers slack-jawed in wonder and admiration. So overwhelmed was Haubs by that performance--by its capital-S Sublimity--he began to question what he thought he knew about Rose's "worthiness" for the MVP. That may bear repeating: The sheer artistic majesty of Rose's performance made one of the basketball blogosphere's sharpest analytical minds doubt its own knowledge.

Well, after he came to from this reverie, in the sober light of day, Haubs went back to the numbers, and in them, he found safety; he found Dwight Howard. And I'm not suggesting the numbers lie; they don't. Howard's a good choice for MVP.

But I didn't start writing a basketball blog to wear a fucking suit and make good decisions. Fuck that. Give the id its due, and give the kid his due: Give D-Rose the MVP. It might be a guilty pleasure, but isn't pleasure what drew you to this game in the first place? And is that really not the Most Valuable thing?

Just When You Thought You Couldn't Love This Team Any More

CHICAGO (AP) -- Chicago city officials were effusive in their praise for the Chicago Bulls basketball team this afternoon -- but not for the squad's recent winning streak.

Instead, the Bulls were honored for collectively saving 17 children trapped in a burning orphanage located near the United Center on the city's Near West Side.

"We are pride [sic] of this team. All 14 players contributed to preventing a terrible castrophy [sic]," outgoing Chicago Mayor Richard Daley said at a City Hall ceremony.

"This team will do what it needs to do," said star point guard Derrick Rose, who ordered a team bus to halt at the burning building and led his teammates into the decrepit structure after jumping through a fire-rimmed window open on the first floor.

Officials said they believe the orphanage may have been boobytrapped with incendiary devices. Sources tell the AP that authorities are questioning suspects today in South Beach, the Greater Boston area, and Los Angeles.

Regardless of the outcome of the criminal investigation, the team's heroics Wednesday will go down in the annals of Chicago fire history.

Fire spokesman Larry Langford said the Bulls were able to get the children out gracefully, using an ingenious handing-off system that expertly distributed the labor and played to each individual's personal strengths.

While back-up power forward Brian Scalabrine did not enter the building, even he played a crucial role in the rescue, providing water to other players and handing them blankets after the children were saved.

All props to Mr. Maidenberg for this.