Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Trades, Trades, Trades

The Bulls need more fixin' than the rusty Studebaker in my neighbor's driveway. John Paxson ought to do interviews carrying an acetylene torch and wearing a tool belt. Why do I even bother rooting for the youth movement that hasn't accomplished anything but 3 postseason appearances in the 3 years since Ben Gordon and Luol Deng were drafted? Last time I checked championships can only be won in the rookie year of a team's third best backup point guard right? I keep reading rules like that, so they must be true.

Strange how a stat mashup like Win Shares makes a good argument that Kobe Bryant won't make a big enough impact to make up for the loss of production for whomever the loud voices send to L.A., and win a championship. It must be objective and cliche-free or something.

I like to use Win Shares to put a player's complete season in perspective, and if you look at the best seasons in the three point era you'll notice some obvious trends. The most obvious: there are only 3 non-big men in the top 30, and none of them are named Kobe Bryant. The second most obvious: Terry Porter's 1990-91 season is #99. Give that man a medal. The crux is a really good big man accounts for more wins than a really good guard. Unless that guard is Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant isn't Michael Jordan.

Simple addition and subtraction with last season's Win Shares shows that Kobe would likely have to top his best season to make up for the loss of two of Gordon, Hinrich, and Deng. The trade doesn't look good for the Bulls before salaries are even considered.

On to the less flashy trade idea that inspired this post. Taking it to the Rack's Steve Weinman suggests Ricky Davis could help the Bulls' offense as a sixth man. There is merit to this idea. Davis can post guards up, and score points in bunches. The drawbacks include his expiring 6.8 million dollar contract that's too valuable for the Timberwolves to trade, and the Bulls locked up a sixth man with a higher TS% in Nocioni for 5 years. By comparison, Nocioni's scoring contributions are slightly better than Davis'. Nocioni can't be traded until December either, and Kevin McHale is likely fishing for youth and draft picks this season.


Blogger BenGo07 said...

I think more shocking than Porter at 99 is Anfernee at 44. I remembered him being a good, dynamic youn player, but never that impressive.

10:55 AM  
Blogger BenGo07 said...

Sorry, that should be Anfernee at 41.

10:56 AM  
Blogger Hot Shit College Student said...

If you investigate Penny's 95-96 season it was a far more productive (and he played the whole season) year than any he had before or after.

11:03 AM  
Anonymous fred said...

Come on, really, why is it that everyone's trade scenario involve Deng, Gordon and Hinrich. I think Paxson has proven he will not gut the team outright to make a trade. No way does that trade occur with these 3, maybe 2 of those and another player but no way in hell does he trade that combo for Kobe. He's been reluctant to let go of Deng. So please try and figure out a realistic trade offer, and stop with this ludacris scenario. it'll never happen.

2:26 PM  
Blogger Hot Shit College Student said...

Fred, I didn't articulate my thought very well, but the point was 2 of those 3 are too much for Kobe. I never really came up with a trade scenario.

2:47 PM  
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10:01 PM  

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